Prof. Nikolaos Zahariadis[1]
There is a way out, but it requires reason, not emotion. Unfortunately, the latter dominates politics right now. The only way to take back the agenda and steer the narrative away from Hamas is to divide and conquer. Division means separating the leadership, Hamas, from the population and convincing people that there is another way, their own way. Palestinians need to take charge of their own fate, perhaps in an autonomous region that could be a state, but without Hamas. Without the thugs, the political Mafia, that has ruled the strip.
We are all completely numb by the atrocities taking place in the Middle East. The horrific coordinated attack on Israeli settlements and cities in south Israel put Hamas back on the saddle, determining, and not just shaping, the agenda. Why did Hamas do it and has the narrative changed in its favor? The answer is simple: it attacked to change the narrative and it has succeeded doing so.
On that awful day of October 7, 2023, many Hamas militants committed a horrible, coordinated attack on Israelis hoping to provoke a violent response that would put them back on the region’s political map. It was an operation, years in the planning. One has to wonder about the strategic vision of the Hamas leadership, who were able to envision, plan, and execute such a complicated and risky operation without anyone hearing or knowing anything. It seems unlikely that no one did, but no information has surfaced to confirm otherwise. To understand why the attack took place, we need to know two things about the Middle East before that fateful October day. First, Israel was about to “normalize” relations with one of the two regional superpowers in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia. It was a major political coup not only because it engaged the informal Arab leader into some semblance of peace with Israel, but also because it further reduced Iranian influence in the region. Once Israel responded and tempers flared, the to-be-signed agreement was abandoned. Second, Hamas needed to take charge of the agenda. Its atrocities brought about cheers on the Arab street, waking people up to the Gaza strip reality: corruption, exploitation, and despair. Of the three, only the third remains and that is what Hamas has in mind. Bring attention to the despair of the Palestinians, which was not receiving ample coverage, by sacrificing tens of thousands of Israelis and Palestinians for the cause.
But why have they been successful in crafting this new narrative at a time when we all know what Hamas has been doing? We all are aware that billions have been spent on bringing relief to the desperate Palestinians of the Gaza strip and they have absolutely nothing to show for it. Where did all the money go? No one is asking the right questions. Why? Because, as President Donald Trump, has demonstrated time and again, bad news can also be very good news. Hamas knew their viciousness would provoke an equally vicious response by the Israelis. After the daily bombardment and the terrible pain inflicted on innocent civilians, collateral damage in the dehumanizing common parlance, who will remember why and how it started? Other than Jews, who will choose to focus on atrocities committed against unarmed Israelis? It’s the poor Palestinians who are suffering, who are the real victims. Right now, that’s the narrative.
What Hamas has perfected and what the Israeli leadership appears to have forgotten is how to successfully project the culture of victimhood. Israel established itself in the Middle East not only because Israelis took the land, by force to be sure, but also because the victorious allies allowed it to happen, reeling from the guilt inflicted by the Holocaust. They allowed it to happen and they, too, were guilty. Jews were victims and some good will, a state, was thought to be appropriate at the time. Hamas seems to have learned this lesson very well. It has cultivated it through the years and has in fact contributed to it. Hamas derives strength from it because every time TV cameras show a Palestinian dead or dying, a terrorist martyr is born. Hamas thrives in poverty and despair because without it, there are only reasonable people left wondering why the leadership is behaving like a political Mafia. Hamas leaders are hiding amidst the riches they have amassed in Gaza, Turkey and elsewhere while their own people are sacrificed for the cause of keeping Hamas in power.
We are all completely numb by the atrocities taking place in the Middle East. The horrific coordinated attack on Israeli settlements and cities in south Israel put Hamas back on the saddle, determining, and not just shaping, the agenda. Why did Hamas do it and has the narrative changed in its favor? The answer is simple: it attacked to change the narrative and it has succeeded doing so.
On that awful day of October 7, 2023, many Hamas militants committed a horrible, coordinated attack on Israelis hoping to provoke a violent response that would put them back on the region’s political map. It was an operation, years in the planning. One has to wonder about the strategic vision of the Hamas leadership, who were able to envision, plan, and execute such a complicated and risky operation without anyone hearing or knowing anything. It seems unlikely that no one did, but no information has surfaced to confirm otherwise. To understand why the attack took place, we need to know two things about the Middle East before that fateful October day. First, Israel was about to “normalize” relations with one of the two regional superpowers in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia. It was a major political coup not only because it engaged the informal Arab leader into some semblance of peace with Israel, but also because it further reduced Iranian influence in the region. Once Israel responded and tempers flared, the to-be-signed agreement was abandoned. Second, Hamas needed to take charge of the agenda. Its atrocities brought about cheers on the Arab street, waking people up to the Gaza strip reality: corruption, exploitation, and despair. Of the three, only the third remains and that is what Hamas has in mind. Bring attention to the despair of the Palestinians, which was not receiving ample coverage, by sacrificing tens of thousands of Israelis and Palestinians for the cause.
But why have they been successful in crafting this new narrative at a time when we all know what Hamas has been doing? We all are aware that billions have been spent on bringing relief to the desperate Palestinians of the Gaza strip and they have absolutely nothing to show for it. Where did all the money go? No one is asking the right questions. Why? Because, as President Donald Trump, has demonstrated time and again, bad news can also be very good news. Hamas knew their viciousness would provoke an equally vicious response by the Israelis. After the daily bombardment and the terrible pain inflicted on innocent civilians, collateral damage in the dehumanizing common parlance, who will remember why and how it started? Other than Jews, who will choose to focus on atrocities committed against unarmed Israelis? It’s the poor Palestinians who are suffering, who are the real victims. Right now, that’s the narrative.
What Hamas has perfected and what the Israeli leadership appears to have forgotten is how to successfully project the culture of victimhood. Israel established itself in the Middle East not only because Israelis took the land, by force to be sure, but also because the victorious allies allowed it to happen, reeling from the guilt inflicted by the Holocaust. They allowed it to happen and they, too, were guilty. Jews were victims and some good will, a state, was thought to be appropriate at the time. Hamas seems to have learned this lesson very well. It has cultivated it through the years and has in fact contributed to it. Hamas derives strength from it because every time TV cameras show a Palestinian dead or dying, a terrorist martyr is born. Hamas thrives in poverty and despair because without it, there are only reasonable people left wondering why the leadership is behaving like a political Mafia. Hamas leaders are hiding amidst the riches they have amassed in Gaza, Turkey and elsewhere while their own people are sacrificed for the cause of keeping Hamas in power.
There is a way out, but it requires reason, not emotion. Unfortunately, the latter dominates politics right now. The only way to take back the agenda and steer the narrative away from Hamas is to divide and conquer. Division means separating the leadership, Hamas, from the population and convincing people that there is another way, their own way. Palestinians need to take charge of their own fate, perhaps in an autonomous region that could be a state, but without Hamas. Without the thugs, the political Mafia, that has ruled the strip. Unfortunately, one cannot do this with bombs. While eliminating Hamas is a worthwhile military cause, one can only accomplish this successfully through political means and negotiations with anyone from the Gaza strip or the West Bank who is willing to listen. The Europeans cannot do this. They cannot even bring themselves to ask the important question: what happened to all the money we sent you? So perhaps the Americans have the contacts and power to convince Israelis to change narrative and approach.
The complementary strategy to this political narrative is to engage neighbors in the region. While regional elites are scared stiff of their populations’ anger, they have more to gain than to lose from engaging in regional peace talks. If it was good practice a month ago, it is good practice now. The difference is that it is now politically costlier and requires considerably more skill and courage to think about what is good for their countries’ long-term interests. Think about it. The only ones who have gained from this affair are Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. We are now paying attention again to what they are thinking and saying. They matter to us. Why should they?
If we, the West, want to regain the upper hand in the Middle East, the way out is not to become an even poorer victim, seeking sympathy and resources from anyone who will listen. And suppressing any information that does not conform to the official narrative. Or calling our atrocities collateral damage. That has been already tried, and the extremists have won. The way forward is to engage Israel with its neighbors in the Middle East, including the Palestinian leadership, and create a new security architecture, a new camp David Accords. It will be one that aims to isolate the terrorists and their sponsors in Iran, Turkey, and elsewhere. It will be one that calls for governments to take a stand for peace and prosperity against victimhood. It takes courage, vision, and leadership not to play the victim all the time.
[1] Professor of International Studies & Mertie Buckman Chair, Rhodes College (USA)